Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jorge MateoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Mike ClevingerPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sheets singled to right, Lopez scored and Pham scored, Vaughn to second.8–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 9Vaughn hit by pitch, Mendick scored, Lopez to second, Pham to third.8–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 9Pham singled to center, Julks scored, Mendick to second.8–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–2
- 6Hays singled to left, Henderson scored, Rutschman to second.8–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 6Rutschman singled to right, Mateo scored and Mountcastle scored, Henderson to third.7–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 4Mateo homered to left center (434 feet), Mountcastle scored and Mullins scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Santander homered to right center (370 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Benintendi singled to center, Sheets scored, DeJong to third.1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Rutschman singled to right, Mullins scored, Henderson to second, Mateo to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 68%
- ML BAL -240 / CHW +200
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 62.4%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -212
- CHW +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.1 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +10 | BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Mike Clevinger: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +88 Elo | BAL 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 2.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 10–1422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–22 | 23–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–20 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 20–27 |
| Overs–unders | 25–20–2 | 22–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 4–2 CHW in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.