Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Albert SuarezPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Westburg homered to right center (388 feet).5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Santander homered to right center (395 feet), Mountcastle scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 8O'Hearn homered to right center (384 feet), Rutschman scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Sheets tripled to center, Benintendi scored, Lopez scored and Pham scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 61%
- ML BAL -175 / CHW +150
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 62.5%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- BAL -159
- CHW +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.8 – 3.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +9 | BAL: Albert Suarez: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +89 Elo | BAL 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 2.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3014–8 | Road vs home | 10–1626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–24 | 25–27 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–22 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 22–27 |
| Overs–unders | 27–20–2 | 24–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 6–2 CHW in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.