Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
White Sox- Danny MendickBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCann hit sacrifice fly to right, Mullins scored, Mateo to third.4–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Automatic Strike - Pitch Timer Violation 13–1
- 8Mendick homered to left (401 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 8Cowser homered to left (374 feet).3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 6Rutschman homered to left (400 feet), Westburg scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 62%
- ML BAL -185 / CHW +155
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 63.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.8 – 2.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +21 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 1.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +95 Elo | BAL 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 2.930th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3015–8 | Road vs home | 10–1727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–24 | 25–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–22 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 22–28 |
| Overs–unders | 27–21–2 | 24–28–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 7–2 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.