Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Romy GonzalezBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Cooper CriswellPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Kyle StowersBatting3-4, 4 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8González tripled to right, Wong scored, Hamilton scored and Cooper scored.3–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–11
- 7Stowers singled to center, O'Hearn scored and Mountcastle scored.0–11
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–11
- 7Mountcastle singled to right, Rutschman scored, O'Hearn to second.0–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Rutschman doubled to right, Henderson scored.0–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 4Mateo hit sacrifice fly to right, Mullins scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 4Mullins tripled to center, Westburg scored and Stowers scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Stowers doubled to left, Mountcastle scored and Cowser scored, Westburg to third.0–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to center, Mateo scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Westburg doubled to center, Cowser scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 59%
- ML BOS +135 / BAL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- BAL: Elo 59.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- BAL -143
- BOS +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 5.1 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +14 | BOS: Cooper Criswell: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +68 Elo | BAL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 6th of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 17–107th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–30 | 27–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–21 | 19–22 |
| Underdog | 17–9 | 8–2 |
| Overs–unders | 19–32–2 | 27–22–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–10 BAL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.