Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9N. Gonzales singled to left, Cruz scored.10–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 9Cruz tripled to right, Joe scored.9–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–2
- 8McCutchen singled to right, Tellez scored, Bae to second.8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Joe grounded into fielder's choice to second, McCutchen scored.7–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 7Reynolds hit sacrifice fly to center, Koch scored, McCutchen to third.6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 6Vierling homered to left center (373 feet).5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Triolo hit sacrifice fly to right, N. Gonzales scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 4N. Gonzales homered to left (361 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3McCutchen homered to left center (377 feet), Triolo scored and Bae scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Baddoo hit sacrifice fly to center, Canha scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML PIT -145 / DET +125
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 43.9%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -133
- DET +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −6 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | DET +43 Elo | DET 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 14–1415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–28 | 24–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 7–21 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 29–24 | 30–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–4 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.