Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rogers homered to left (390 feet).2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Rogers homered to left (379 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Semien homered to left (388 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 50%
- ML DET -110 / TEX -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -100
- DET -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +22 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 1.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +53 Elo | TEX 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 11th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 14–1315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–33 | 25–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–21 | 12–23 |
| Underdog | 19–12 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–25 | 22–36–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–7 TEX in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.