Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting1-4
- Trevor RogersPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jankowski grounded out to first, Lowe scored, Semien to second, Taveras to third.6–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 9Taveras singled to left, Smith scored, Lowe to second.5–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6García homered to left center (395 feet).4–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Heim grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Grossman scored, García out at second.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1García singled to center, Seager scored, Grossman to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Grossman reached on infield single to third, Semien scored, Seager to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 53%
- ML TEX -125 / MIA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.4 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −12 | TEX: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +34 Elo | TEX 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 13th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.328th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 11–2028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–34 | 24–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 1–16 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 23–19 |
| Overs–unders | 22–35–1 | 32–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 4–1 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.