Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-4
- Colin ReaPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Castellanos doubled to right, Merrifield scored, Stott to third.1–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Bohm homered to center (420 feet).1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 3Monasterio grounded out to third, Perkins scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML MIL +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- MIL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 4.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | MIL: Jared Koenig: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +33 Elo | PHI 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +1.72nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 25–92nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–25 | 34–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 28–23 |
| Underdog | 22–9 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 34–26 | 27–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–3 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.