Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Adames reached on infield single to shortstop, Contreras scored, Yelich to third.3–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Adames singled to center, Contreras scored and Turang scored, Yelich to second.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Sheets homered to right center (410 feet), Julks scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Ortiz doubled to right, Turang scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Benintendi homered to right center (397 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML CHW +135 / MIL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 68.4%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -143
- CHW +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +9 | CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +134 Elo | MIL 68.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +1.07th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–22 | Road vs home | 16–109th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–33 | 34–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 12–15 |
| Underdog | 22–33 | 22–8 |
| Overs–unders | 26–31–1 | 33–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 0–4 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.