Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Trevor RichardsPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
White Sox- Korey LeeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris FlexenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee homered to left center (401 feet).3–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 6Kiner-Falefa grounded into fielder's choice to center, Springer scored, Kirk out at second.3–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Kiner-Falefa singled to left, Springer scored, Kirk to second.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Bichette singled to left, Schneider scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 64%
- ML TOR -195 / CHW +165
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.8%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- TOR -175
- CHW +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.9 – 3.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −23 | TOR: Alek Manoah: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +84 Elo | TOR 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 64.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 2.930th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.129th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −2.230th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 10–2029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–27 | 25–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–16 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 22–31 |
| Overs–unders | 23–30–1 | 25–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 10–1 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.