Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Nicky LopezBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jake WoodfordPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vaughn singled to left, Remillard scored, Mendick to third.7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 8Turner singled to right, Jansen scored and Bichette scored.7–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Bichette singled to left, Schneider scored, Bichette to second, Jansen to third.5–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Schneider hit sacrifice fly to center, Springer scored, Kiner-Falefa to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Lopez doubled to center, Julks scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 2Schneider doubled to left, Kiermaier scored and Kiner-Falefa scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Kiner-Falefa doubled to left, Springer scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 67%
- ML TOR -225 / CHW +190
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 61.2%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- TOR -201
- CHW +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 3.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −15 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jake Woodford: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +79 Elo | TOR 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 2.930th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −2.230th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 10–1928th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–27 | 25–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 22–30 |
| Overs–unders | 22–30–1 | 24–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 9–1 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.