Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Gavin SheetsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick NastriniPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schneider homered to left (361 feet), Springer scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 35–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 8Sheets homered to right (346 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Bichette homered to center (419 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 2Springer homered to left center (396 feet), Varsho scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 65%
- ML TOR -210 / CHW +175
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 60.4%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -186
- CHW +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.9 – 3.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −13 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Nick Nastrini: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +73 Elo | TOR 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 2.930th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −2.130th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 25th of 3011–17 | Road vs home | 10–1828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–27 | 25–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–16 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 22–29 |
| Overs–unders | 22–29–1 | 24–29–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 8–1 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.