Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sánchez homered to center (422 feet), Yelich scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 8Morel homered to right center (396 feet).4–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 7Turang reached on infield single to pitcher, Perkins scored.3–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Suzuki homered to left center (388 feet), Hoerner scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 2Perkins singled to center, Ortiz scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Ortiz doubled to left, Frelick scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Sánchez hit sacrifice fly to left, Adames scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Bellinger homered to right (366 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML CHC +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −9 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +39 Elo | MIL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 14–1010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–27 | 32–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–16 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 22–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–30–1 | 31–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 9–10 MIL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.