Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Happ hit sacrifice fly to left, Bellinger scored.6–10
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–10
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 25–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–10
- 9Tauchman scored on error, Morel safe at first on error by first baseman Bauers, Bellinger safe at third on error.5–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–10
- 7Adames homered to left center (409 feet), Contreras scored.4–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 7Yelich grounded out to first, Ortiz scored, Contreras to third.4–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 5Wisdom hit by pitch, Bellinger scored, Hoerner to second, Happ to third.4–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–7
- 5Bellinger grounded into fielder's choice to third, Tauchman scored, Suzuki out at third.3–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 4Swanson grounded out to shortstop, Happ scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 3Perkins homered to left center (395 feet), Sánchez scored.1–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–7
- 3Sánchez doubled to left, Adames scored and Yelich scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 56%
- ML CHC -140 / MIL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 46.6%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -128
- MIL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 3.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +32 | +15 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 1.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIL: Bryse Wilson: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +24 Elo | MIL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 13–1011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–26 | 31–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 23–11 | 21–8 |
| Overs–unders | 24–30–1 | 30–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 9–9 MIL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.