Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 10Miller reached on infield single to second, Ortiz scored.6–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 10Frelick grounded out to shortstop, Adames scored, Ortiz to third.6–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 26–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 10Busch singled to center, Happ scored.6–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 10Happ doubled to right, Bellinger scored and Suzuki scored.5–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 10Bellinger singled to center, Tauchman scored, Suzuki to second.3–1
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball 32–1
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 10Tauchman reached on infield single to first, Vázquez scored.2–1
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 9Adames singled to left, Yelich scored, Adames out stretching at second.1–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 3Busch homered to center (411 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML CHC +140 / MIL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -149
- CHC +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +12 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +75 Elo | MIL 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 13–910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–26 | 31–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 21–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–30–1 | 29–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–9 MIL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.