Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-4
- Justin SteelePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Brewers- Willy AdamesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wisdom hit sacrifice fly to center, Suzuki scored.1–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 8Chourio doubled to center, Ortiz scored.0–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 8Adames homered to center (427 feet), Turang scored and Contreras scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 8Contreras grounded into fielder's choice to third, Frelick scored, Turang to second, Turang safe at third on fielding error by third baseman Madrigal.0–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML CHC -115 / MIL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 40.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +5 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +66 Elo | MIL 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 12–911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–25 | 30–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 21–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–29–1 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–8 MIL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.