Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Paul DeJongBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting5-6, 5 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Dunn singled to left, Adames scored, Bauers to third.5–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–11
- 8Yelich singled to left, Turang scored.5–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–10
- 7Frelick doubled to center, Bauers scored, Hoskins to third.5–10
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–10
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 35–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 7Bauers reached on infield single to shortstop, Yelich scored.5–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 7Yelich doubled to left, Turang and Contreras scored on error.5–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging5–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 35–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 7Contreras singled to left, Perkins scored, Turang to second.5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Turang singled to right, Frelick scored, Perkins to third.5–5
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 5Lee reached on infield single to shortstop, Lopez scored.5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Sheets hit sacrifice fly to right, Pham scored, Lopez to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Yelich singled to right, Ortiz scored and Perkins scored, Contreras to second.3–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 62%
- ML CHW +155 / MIL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 67.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −10 | CHW: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +123 Elo | MIL 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–21 | Road vs home | 15–1010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–32 | 33–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 22–32 | 22–8 |
| Overs–unders | 25–31–1 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 0–3 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.