Milwaukee Brewers at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryse WilsonPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Phillies- David DahlBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hoskins homered to left center (365 feet).1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Dahl homered to right (362 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Rojas singled to center, Dahl scored, Sosa to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Sosa singled to left, Castellanos scored, Dahl to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML MIL +170 / PHI -205
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.0%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -181
- MIL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.1 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +7 | MIL: Jared Koenig: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +42 Elo | PHI 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 24–92nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–24 | 33–27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 27–23 |
| Underdog | 22–8 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 34–25 | 27–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.