Chicago White Sox at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Paul DeJongBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick NastriniPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Sánchez singled to right, Adames scored and Frelick scored, Ortiz to third.3–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4DeJong homered to right center (393 feet).3–4
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 2Chourio homered to left (384 feet), Bauers scored and Sánchez scored.2–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Bauers doubled to right, Ortiz scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1DeJong hit sacrifice fly to right, Julks scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Sheets singled to right, Lopez scored, Julks to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 75%
- ML CHW +280 / MIL -350
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 72.0%, market 74.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -296
- CHW +296 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 2.6 – 4.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | CHW: Nick Nastrini: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +164 Elo | MIL 72.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 71.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 74.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHW | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.3 | Margin | +1.07th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 305–23 | Road vs home | 17–108th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–33 | 34–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 12–16 |
| Underdog | 23–33 | 22–8 |
| Overs–unders | 26–32–1 | 33–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 0–5 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.