Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Carson KellyBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Chourio doubled to left, Hoskins scored and Perkins scored.5–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 3Adames grounded out to third, Turang scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Yelich hit sacrifice fly to left, Chourio scored, Contreras to second, Turang to third.2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Canha singled to right, Kelly scored and Greene scored on throwing error by right fielder Frelick, Canha to third.1–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Kelly singled to right, Baddoo scored, Báez to second.1–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Urshela singled to left, Greene scored, Canha to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Yelich singled to right, Turang scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 61%
- ML MIL -170 / DET +145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -154
- DET +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.2 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −13 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +58 Elo | MIL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.217th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 8th of 3019–16 | Road vs home | 14–1621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–26 | 28–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–16 | 7–22 |
| Underdog | 24–10 | 21–13 |
| Overs–unders | 35–28 | 36–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–2 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.