Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Greene homered to left (351 feet).7–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 9Meneses singled to left, Rosario scored, L. García Jr. to second.7–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 9L. García Jr. reached on infield single to shortstop, Thomas scored, Rosario to second.6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 8Urshela doubled to left, Canha scored and Keith scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Keith singled to left, Pérez scored on fielding error by left fielder Winker, Canha safe at third on error.5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 5Winker scored on throwing error by catcher Kelly, L. García Jr. stole second.5–1
- 5Winker scored on throwing error by catcher Kelly, L. García Jr. stole second.5–1
- 5Winker singled to right, Abrams scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Abrams hit a ground rule double, Young scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to center, L. García Jr. scored, Meneses to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Abrams homered to right center (404 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Vierling homered to left (363 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML WSH +105 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- DET: Elo 51.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 3.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −5 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +13 Elo | DET 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 11th of 3018–18 | Road vs home | 15–1822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–26 | 30–36 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 8–23 |
| Underdog | 37–24 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders | 30–35–1 | 39–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–1 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.