Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hurston WaldrepPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kelenic homered to center (413 feet), Harris II scored and Arcia scored.5–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–8
- 5Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Winker scored.2–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 4Abrams doubled to right, Senzel scored, Young scored and Gallo scored.2–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Ruiz homered to right (388 feet), Winker scored and L. García Jr. scored.2–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 4L. García Jr. singled to left, Thomas scored, Winker to second.2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2d'Arnaud scored on Herz wild pitch, Arcia to second on wild pitch by Herz, Harris II to third on wild pitch by Herz.2–0
- 2d'Arnaud scored on Herz wild pitch, Arcia to second on wild pitch by Herz, Harris II to third on wild pitch by Herz.2–0
- 2Harris II singled to left, Duvall scored, d'Arnaud to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML ATL -165 / WSH +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.2 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −3 | ATL: Hurston Waldrep (no track record yet) · WSH: DJ Herz: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +44 Elo | ATL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 10th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 12–1726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–31 | 38–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–29 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 35–24 |
| Overs–unders | 22–37–3 | 28–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 10–10 WSH in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.