Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Braves- Adam DuvallBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.2 IP, 8 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Arcia singled to left, Harris II scored.8–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 18–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 7Duvall homered to left (410 feet), Olson scored.8–3
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 38–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 28–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 7Murphy grounded out to third, Ozuna scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 6Abrams hit sacrifice fly to right, Senzel scored, Young to third.8–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging7–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 27–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 6Young singled to right, Winker scored, Senzel to third.7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Rosario scored, Ruiz picked off and caught stealing second.6–0
- 3Rosario scored, Ruiz picked off and caught stealing second.6–0
- 2Abrams homered to right (367 feet).5–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 1Senzel doubled to left, Ruiz scored and Winker scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML WSH +180 / ATL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.8%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -191
- WSH +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −8 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +84 Elo | ATL 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 66.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 16–85th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–20 | 26–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 21–23 |
| Underdog | 28–19 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 22–28–1 | 17–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–8 ATL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.