New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Harrison BaderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Jacob YoungBatting3-3, 2 RBI
- DJ HerzPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Young singled to right, Winker scored.6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 9Alonso homered to left (446 feet).6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Gallo singled to right, Winker scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Young singled to right, Winker scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 5Vientos hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Marte tripled to right, Alonso scored and Nimmo scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4Bader homered to left center (390 feet), Marte scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML NYM -140 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 45.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -128
- WSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +2 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: DJ Herz (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +31 Elo | WSH 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 10–1426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–36 | 36–23 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 16–16 | 33–21 |
| Overs–unders | 32–27 | 26–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 8–6 WSH in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.