Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Daniel SchneemannBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Thomas hit sacrifice fly to center, Gallo scored, Vargas to third.5–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 2Schneemann doubled to right, Arias scored and Brennan scored.4–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Thomas singled to right, Vargas scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Vargas singled to center, Meneses scored, Vargas to second.3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Meneses doubled to center, Rosario scored and Ruiz scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML WSH +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −11 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +47 Elo | CLE 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.76th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 20–61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–22 | 36–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 17–17 |
| Underdog | 32–21 | 19–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–31–1 | 30–26–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–4 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.