Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Eli MorganPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Rockies- Brendan RodgersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rocchio singled to right, Brennan scored.4–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 9Brennan singled to center, Rodríguez scored.3–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 32–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 2Díaz doubled to left, McMahon scored.2–7
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 2Rodgers homered to left (387 feet), Goodman scored.2–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 2Goodman singled to right, Stallings scored.2–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Bouchard hit sacrifice fly to center, Doyle scored, Stallings to third.2–3
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 32–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 2Stallings doubled to right, Montero scored, Doyle to third.2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1McMahon reached on infield single to third, Tovar scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Fry singled to center, Ramírez scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 58%
- ML CLE -150 / COL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -138
- COL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1438 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −8 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +67 Elo | CLE 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.630th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–12 | Road vs home | 12–1215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 35–20 | 28–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–15 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 19–5 | 27–21 |
| Overs–unders | 28–25–2 | 30–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–3 COL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.