Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Josh NaylorBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Triston McKenziePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Kris BryantBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Naylor homered to right (438 feet), Giménez scored and Ramírez scored.13–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play13–7
- 7Fry homered to left (401 feet), Ramírez scored and J. Naylor scored.10–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–7
- 6McMahon singled to center, Blackmon scored.7–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–7
- 6Montero scored on Herrin wild pitch, Blackmon to second on wild pitch by Herrin.7–6
- 6Montero scored on Herrin wild pitch, Blackmon to second on wild pitch by Herrin.7–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 27–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 6Blackmon singled to right, Bouchard scored, Montero to third.7–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 5Manzardo singled to right, Fry scored.7–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 5J. Naylor homered to right (396 feet), Ramírez scored.6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 4Montero homered to left (384 feet), Bouchard scored.4–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Arias hit sacrifice fly to right, Manzardo scored, Brennan to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Bo Naylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Fry scored, Manzardo to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Bryant homered to left (428 feet), Tovar scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML CLE -135 / COL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 62.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.5 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −15 | CLE: Triston McKenzie: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +87 Elo | CLE 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.530th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 12–1113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–20 | 28–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–15 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 19–5 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 27–25–2 | 29–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–3 COL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.