Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Tyler FreemanBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Josh RogersPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Giménez singled to left, Freeman scored.6–8
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 7Ramírez doubled to right, Bo Naylor scored, Rocchio to third.5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 6Blackmon doubled to center, Bouchard scored, Montero to third.4–8
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–8
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 34–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 4Blackmon homered to right (389 feet), Bouchard scored and Montero scored.4–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 4Montero singled to center, Doyle scored and Rodgers scored, Bouchard to third.4–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 4Bouchard grounded into fielder's choice to second, Díaz scored, Doyle safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Giménez, Rodgers to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 34–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 3Fry singled to center, Ramírez scored.4–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML CLE -130 / COL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- COL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 5.4 – 5.1 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +11 | CLE: Xzavion Curry: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +47 Elo | CLE 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.530th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–11 | Road vs home | 11–1114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–19 | 27–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–14 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 19–5 | 26–20 |
| Overs–unders | 26–25–2 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–2 COL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.