Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-4
- Mitchell ParkerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Winker singled to left, L. García Jr. scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Meneses grounded out to shortstop, Thomas scored, L. García Jr. to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Ramírez scored on Parker wild pitch.0–3
- 3Ramírez scored on Parker wild pitch.0–3
- 1Manzardo reached on infield single to third, J. Naylor scored and Ramírez scored, Fry to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML WSH +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | 0 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +54 Elo | CLE 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.77th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–17 | Road vs home | 19–61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–22 | 36–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 17–16 |
| Underdog | 31–21 | 19–5 |
| Overs–unders | 25–30–1 | 30–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–3 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.