Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4
- Ray KerrPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 3Harris II hit sacrifice fly to center, Kelenic scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Winker doubled to left, Meneses scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Meneses doubled to right, Thomas scored and Young scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 61%
- ML WSH +145 / ATL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -154
- WSH +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −27 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Ray Kerr: team allows 1.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +54 Elo | ATL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 66.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.58th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 17–107th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–21 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 22–25 |
| Underdog | 30–20 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–29–1 | 19–31–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–9 ATL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.