Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting3-3
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max FriedPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kelenic hit sacrifice fly to left, Olson scored.0–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 7Ozuna homered to left center (413 feet).0–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 70%
- ML WSH +220 / ATL -270
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 64.2%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -234
- WSH +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +10 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +101 Elo | ATL 64.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 67.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 15th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 16–96th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–20 | 26–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 21–24 |
| Underdog | 29–19 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 23–28–1 | 18–30–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–8 ATL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.