Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ruiz singled to center, Thomas scored and Winker scored.7–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 6d'Arnaud grounded out to second, Riley scored, Olson to third.5–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Young singled to right, Rosario scored and Vargas scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Thomas homered to left (385 feet), Gallo scored and Young scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Ozuna singled to center, Albies scored, Riley to second.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML WSH +125 / ATL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.5%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -133
- WSH +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −9 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +81 Elo | ATL 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 17–96th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–21 | 27–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 22–24 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 23–29–1 | 18–31–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–9 ATL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.