Washington Nationals at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting3-4
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Guardians- David FryBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kwan reached on infield single to second, Rocchio scored.1–7
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 7Fry homered to left center (392 feet), Freeman scored and J. Naylor scored.1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7J. Naylor grounded into fielder's choice to third, Kwan scored, Ramírez out at second, Freeman to third.1–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 7Rosario doubled to right, L. García Jr. scored.1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Ramírez grounded out to third, Kwan scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Freeman reached on infield single to shortstop, Rocchio scored, Freeman to second, Kwan to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 68%
- ML WSH +200 / CLE -240
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 61.9%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -212
- WSH +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 4.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +14 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +84 Elo | CLE 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 63.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.35th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–16 | Road vs home | 18–61st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–21 | 35–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 16–16 |
| Underdog | 31–20 | 19–5 |
| Overs–unders | 24–30–1 | 29–25–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–2 CLE in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.