Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Justin MartinezPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Martinez homered to center (430 feet).2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Lindor singled to right, Alonso scored, Lindor to second.2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Lindor homered to left center (431 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Marte doubled to right, Carroll scored and Moreno scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML ARI -130 / NYM +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- NYM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.4 – 3.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −13 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +20 Elo | ARI 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 11–1927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–31 | 21–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–16 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders | 24–30–1 | 28–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–6 NYM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.