Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Freeman homered to right (383 feet), Betts scored.5–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 10Betts singled to center, Pages scored.3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Taylor reached on bunt single to pitcher, T. Hernández scored, Lux to second.2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Freeman singled to left, Pages scored, Ohtani to second.1–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Lindor homered to right center (396 feet), Nido scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -195 / NYM +165
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.0%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -175
- NYM +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 3.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +8 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +49 Elo | LAD 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 9th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 11–1627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–28 | 21–30 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–25 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 14–13 |
| Overs–unders | 28–26–1 | 27–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–5 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.