Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-4
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vargas homered to left (364 feet).3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Rojas doubled to center, Pages scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Smith homered to left (372 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 53%
- ML LAD -125 / NYM +105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 4.1 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −2 | LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +47 Elo | LAD 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.521st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–11 | Road vs home | 11–1727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–28 | 21–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 27–25 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 28–27–1 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 5–5 NYM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.