Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mets- Tomas NidoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Heyward homered to right center (389 feet).10–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 29–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–3
- 8Ohtani homered to left center (380 feet), Vargas scored.9–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 8Vargas doubled to right, Lux scored and Rojas scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 35–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Rojas singled to left, Heyward scored, Lux to third.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Smith homered to left center (404 feet).4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Martinez doubled to center, Lindor scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Nido homered to center (400 feet), Bader scored.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 5Ohtani singled to center, Vargas scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pages singled to center, Smith scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Smith homered to left (400 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML LAD -120 / NYM +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −1 | LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +55 Elo | LAD 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 11–1827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–28 | 21–32 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 28–25 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders | 28–28–1 | 27–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–5 NYM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.