Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte homered to center (439 feet), Moreno scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Martinez tripled to left, Nimmo scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 3Nimmo tripled to center, Torrens scored and Alonso scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Alonso singled to left, Taylor scored, Torrens to second.3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Newman grounded out to shortstop, Suárez scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 1Gurriel Jr. homered to left (403 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Marte homered to center (416 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 50%
- ML ARI -110 / NYM -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 50.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -100
- ARI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM 0 Elo | NYM 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 13–2027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–32 | 22–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders | 26–31–1 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–8 NYM in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.