Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Joc PedersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker homered to left (377 feet).9–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–10
- 9Pederson homered to right (411 feet), Newman scored and Carroll scored.8–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–10
- 6Martinez homered to right (381 feet), Nimmo scored.5–10
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–10
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 6Suárez homered to right (351 feet).5–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 24–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 4Vientos singled to left, Martinez scored, Marte to third.4–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 4Marte singled to left, Alonso scored, Martinez to second.4–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 4Alonso doubled to left, Nido scored.4–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 3Gurriel Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Marte scored, Gurriel Jr. safe at second on throwing error by second baseman Iglesias, Walker out at second.4–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 2Lindor doubled to right, Nido scored.3–5
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–4
- 1Vientos reached on infield single to third, Marte scored.3–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 1Marte tripled to center, Lindor scored, Nimmo scored and Martinez scored.3–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML ARI +105 / NYM -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 47.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.6 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −11 | ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +15 Elo | ARI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 12–1927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–32 | 22–33 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders | 24–31–1 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–7 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.