Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alonso homered to left center (390 feet), Iglesias scored.10–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–5
- 9Iglesias reached on infield single to third, Bader scored.10–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 210–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 110–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 9Nido grounded out to second, Vientos scored, Bader to third.10–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–1
- 8Carroll singled to center, Alexander scored and McCarthy scored.10–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–1
- 7Suárez hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 7Grichuk singled to center, Newman scored, Carroll to third.7–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 6Alexander scored on throwing error by catcher Nido.6–1
- 6Alexander scored on throwing error by catcher Nido.6–1
- 6Alexander singled to right, Moreno scored.5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Vientos homered to left center (440 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 3Walker homered to left (369 feet), McCarthy scored, Newman scored and Grichuk scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML ARI +105 / NYM -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 51.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +3 | ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +10 Elo | NYM 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 24th of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 13–1927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–32 | 22–34 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 15–16 |
| Overs–unders | 25–31–1 | 29–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–8 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.