New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Jesse WinkerBatting3-4, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Meneses hit sacrifice fly to center, Ruiz scored, Nuñez to third.8–7
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 38–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 28–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–6
- 9Winker singled to right, L. García Jr. scored, Ruiz to second.8–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–5
- 6Marte singled to center, Martinez scored on throwing error by pitcher Barnes, Marte to second.8–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 5Winker walked, Rosario scored, Senzel to second, Ruiz to third.7–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 47–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 37–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 5Torrens doubled to center, Iglesias scored and Vientos scored.7–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 5Iglesias singled to left, Marte scored, Vientos to third.5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 5Bader hit sacrifice fly to center, Martinez scored, Vientos to second, Marte to third.4–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 4Gallo homered to right center (398 feet), Vargas scored.3–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Vargas grounded into fielder's choice to first, Senzel scored, Winker out at second.3–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 52%
- ML NYM +100 / WSH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 53.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +22 Elo | WSH 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 10–1324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–36 | 36–22 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–20 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 15–16 | 33–21 |
| Overs–unders | 31–27 | 25–32–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 7–6 WSH in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.