New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Luis TorrensBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Jesse WinkerBatting2-3
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gallo hit sacrifice fly to center, Ruiz scored, Winker to third.9–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–0
- 7Martinez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Lindor scored, Nimmo out at second, Alonso to third.9–0
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–0
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 28–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 18–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 6Iglesias singled to right, Bader scored.8–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 6Bader doubled to left, Vientos scored and Martinez scored.7–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 6Vientos singled to left, Alonso scored, Martinez to second.5–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 34–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 6Lindor homered to center (428 feet).4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Torrens homered to center (404 feet).3–0
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–0
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 32–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Bader hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML NYM -140 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- NYM: Elo 47.7%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -128
- WSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −16 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +16 Elo | WSH 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 26th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 15th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 10–1526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–36 | 36–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–20 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 16–16 | 33–22 |
| Overs–unders | 32–28 | 26–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 9–6 WSH in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.