Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-3
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Rafael DeversBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Duran homered to right center (399 feet).0–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 20–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 7Devers homered to left center (361 feet), Refsnyder scored.0–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 5Smith doubled to right, Devers scored, O'Neill to third.0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5O'Neill singled to left, Valdez scored, Devers to second.0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Valdez doubled to right, Duran scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2McGuire hit sacrifice fly to left, Smith scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Hamilton doubled to center, O'Neill scored, Smith to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–1
- 2Devers homered to left (358 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 51%
- ML ATL -105 / BOS -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- BOS: Elo 48.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +8 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +10 Elo | ATL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.39th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 8th of 3015–12 | Road vs home | 13–1824th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–28 | 26–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–27 | 8–23 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders | 21–34–3 | 25–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–3 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.