Oakland Athletics at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron BrooksPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris SalePitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Andujar singled to left, Schuemann scored.11–9
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–9
- 6Rooker tripled to right, Schuemann scored and Andujar scored.10–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–9
- 5Duvall singled to left, d'Arnaud scored, Duvall thrown out at second.8–9
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–9
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 28–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 18–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–8
- 5Olson homered to right center (378 feet), Ozuna scored.8–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 5Ozuna singled to left, Riley scored.8–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 18–5
- 5Riley reached on infield single to third, Arcia scored on error and Harris II scored on throwing error by third baseman Toro, Riley to second.8–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 4Rooker homered to left (421 feet), Schuemann scored.8–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 3Ozuna grounded out to third, Harris II scored.6–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 2Andujar homered to center (412 feet), Díaz scored and Toro scored.6–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Schuemann singled to left, Gelof scored, Díaz to second.3–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 72%
- ML OAK +240 / ATL -290
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 70.0%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -253
- OAK +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 2.7 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1430 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +17 | OAK: Aaron Brooks: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +147 Elo | ATL 70.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 73.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 73.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 3010–20 | Road vs home | 18–118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–31 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 23–26 |
| Underdog | 24–25 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 19–33–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–2 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.