Oakland Athletics at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting2-4
- JP SearsPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz grounded out to shortstop, Gelof scored.2–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Arcia hit sacrifice fly to center, Olson scored, Duvall to third.1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4Gelof hit sacrifice fly to left, Andujar scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Kelenic doubled to center, Murphy scored and Harris II scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Olson hit sacrifice fly to right, Riley scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 69%
- ML OAK +210 / ATL -250
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 68.0%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -221
- OAK +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.4 – 5.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +7 | OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +131 Elo | ATL 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 67.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.59th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 28th of 3010–19 | Road vs home | 17–118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–30 | 27–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 22–26 |
| Underdog | 24–24 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 29–28 | 19–32–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.