Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Siri singled to left, Rosario scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 8Bleday singled to left, Schuemann scored, Bleday thrown out at second.3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Paredes doubled to left, Palacios scored, Díaz thrown out at home.2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Aranda singled to right, B. Lowe scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 6Andujar reached on infield single to third, Toro scored, Rooker to second.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4B. Lowe tripled to right, Paredes scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Andujar hit sacrifice fly to left, Bleday scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TB 63%
- ML OAK +160 / TB -190
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- TB: Elo 64.3%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -170
- OAK +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.2 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +1 | OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +102 Elo | TB 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 26th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 26th of 3010–17 | Road vs home | 15–1820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–30 | 23–32 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 12–24 |
| Underdog | 22–24 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 28–27 | 28–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 3–5 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.