Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rays- Jose SiriBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 12Palacios singled to center, Caballero scored.5–6
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 15–5
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 10Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to center, Caballero scored, Palacios to third.5–5
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 10Toro singled to left, Schuemann scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 34–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 9Siri homered to left (407 feet).4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 3Langeliers homered to left center (406 feet), Andujar scored.4–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Andujar singled to center, Rooker scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 3Rooker doubled to center, Toro scored on error, Rooker safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Siri.1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Siri homered to left center (428 feet).0–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Paredes homered to left (367 feet), Arozarena scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 59%
- ML OAK +135 / TB -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- TB: Elo 65.6%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- TB -143
- OAK +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.9 – 4.6 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | −3 | OAK: Hogan Harris: team allows 1.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · TB: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +112 Elo | TB 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 26th of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 16–1819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–30 | 23–33 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 23–24 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 28–28 | 28–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 3–6 TB in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.