Oakland Athletics at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Zack GelofBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis MedinaPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Albies singled to right, Martínez scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Murphy doubled to right, Duvall scored, Kelenic to third.1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 7Gelof homered to center (436 feet).1–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Olson singled to right, Ozuna scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 70%
- ML OAK +220 / ATL -260
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 66.7%, market 69.8%
- Fair odds
- ATL -231
- OAK +231 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 3.3 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −12 | OAK: Luis Medina: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +121 Elo | ATL 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 65.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 69.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.59th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 18–129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–31 | 28–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–6 | 23–27 |
| Underdog | 25–25 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 20–33–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 3–2 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.