Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max FriedPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 13 K
Red Sox- Dominic SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kutter CrawfordPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harris II singled to center, Short scored, Arcia to third.8–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Arcia homered to right center (376 feet).7–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking6–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 6Albies homered to right center (401 feet), Riley scored and Ozuna scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 5Murphy singled to left, Kelenic scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Dalbec singled to right, Devers scored and Wong scored, Westbrook to third.2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Smith homered to left center (352 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Olson scored on error and Albies scored on error, Duvall safe at first on error by first baseman Smith.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML ATL -170 / BOS +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.6%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -151
- BOS +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.7 – 3.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −16 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Kutter Crawford: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +60 Elo | ATL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3014–12 | Road vs home | 13–1724th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–28 | 26–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–27 | 8–23 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 20–34–3 | 24–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–3 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.