Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Nick SenzelBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Murphy homered to center (408 feet).3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Senzel homered to left center (405 feet), Ruiz scored.2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–5
- 6Ozuna scored, Olson to second on passed ball by Ruiz.2–5
- 6Ozuna scored, Olson to second on passed ball by Ruiz.2–5
- 5Rosario singled to right, Thomas scored.1–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Albies doubled to left, Harris II scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Senzel doubled to left, L. García Jr. scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Abrams singled to left, Senzel scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Rosario doubled to center, Abrams scored and Thomas scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML ATL -125 / WSH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.1 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +1 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +46 Elo | ATL 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.925th of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.421st of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 9th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 11–1726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–30 | 37–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–28 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 21–37–3 | 27–35–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 10–9 WSH in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.